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Bitcoin TINA (There is no alternative), Gigi (21 lessons), David Bailey (Bitcoin Magazine), Brandon Green (Bitcoin Magazine)
[00:00:00] Brandon Green: Welcome, welcome. We're so excited to be here it looks like we have 11 blocks remaining until the Halving, we are literally just bumping right up to it right now, so super excited to get this going.
Let's go around and do a quick introduction to everyone. David, you want to kick us off?
David Bailey: , David Bailey, Bitcoin mega bull. this is my third halving, my day job, my night job is Bitcoin Magazine and BTC Inc.
Brandon Green: Awesome. TINA.
TINA: I'm Bitcoin, TINA, @BitcoinTINA on Twitter. This is my first halving, I am incredibly bullish, as everybody knows.
I think that very simply, Bitcoin -- there is no alternative.
Brandon Green: Perfect. And Gigi.
Gigi: Hey everyone. I'm Gigi. Most people will probably know me from Twitter. I'm also the author of a book that got released recently, "21 Lessons," and this is my second halving and I'm also hyper bullish on [00:01:00] Bitcoin and a big believer that we are living through hyperbitcoinization right now.
Brandon Green: Perfect. Beautiful. Couldn't agree more. so if you're wondering why I've assembled you guys here it's because I think we have three of the most bullish people on this call right now in Bitcoin. but I would like to find out who really is the mega bull of the mega bulls. so my, my question is simple. We don't have a ton of time, and I want to give you guys each kind of a moment to really explain your thoughts, but the question is.
What does Bitcoin's ultimate success look like to you? What is Bitcoin's moon? And then the follow-up is, what are the societal and economic implications of that success? so it's, it's a simple enough question, but I think it's got some complicated answers. and I don't know who we want to kick it off, but, Bitcoin TINA, what about you kicking off.
TINA: Sure. I'd
be happy to. Okay. So for me, Bitcoin ultimately changes the world in very significant ways. I was listening to Jimmy Rogers talk the [00:02:00] other day, and both he and Warren Buffett have said, if they had their way, they would give a card to every investor, and this would be a punch card and all you would have on it is 20 punches to punch out each time you can make an investment, and that's all the choices for investing that you would ever have for your entire life.
I think Bitcoin will create a world where such a metaphorical punch card exists because we'll be living in a world with a deflationary money where its value will accrete as global production increases the net effect of such a world, jimmy Rogers also put it, that people will have to think very carefully about how they invest, not just throwing ideas up against the wall and seeing what sticks.
The end result for that will be enormously high growth globally as well as businesses which produce an enormous amount of wealth for humanity, and I think it will lift everyone on the planet dramatically as there is more wealth available for [00:03:00] everyone.
Second, I believe Bitcoin will destroy debt slavery, which I think is an anathema. Debt is like an addictive drug.
It's easy to get in, very hard to get out of. And if we could accomplish these two things, Bitcoin will have absolutely mooned. It's not about creating wealth for bitcoiners. It's about changing the world. And I think these two things will change humanity in enormously positive ways and help us reach wherever humanity can reach.
David Bailey: I dig that.
Brandon Green: David. Well, why don't you, why don't you piggyback and give some insight as well.
David Bailey: Yeah. So I think first we have to ask ourselves like, what is the purpose of money? And money is really a tool that orders society for its maximum efficiency of, really diffusing energy. and you know, I, I look at like, what is the, the moon in the short term, alright.
That would be 100% adoption of all Bitcoin, all, [00:04:00] all financial transactions that occur or are happening on top of the Bitcoin value system. So that'd be 100% adoption, 100% penetration of all current financial transactions. So that's the simple version. But I think that maybe the bigger, more exciting version is, is all of the transactions that become possible that aren't currently possible.
So, I've used this analogy before, but I think it's powerful. If you look at the internet, before the internet existed, it would be unfathomable to think that, the entire amount of information on the internet within a couple of years would exceed all data created by humans over the course of mankind.
That includes cave paintings, paintings, drawings, books, telegrams, you know, handwritten letters, you name it. Every piece of information possible that the internet would exceed that within a couple of years. Well, now the internet creates that much data every second, every second. So I think that that's a similar trajectory of how much latent potential there is in the world to kind of [00:05:00] a tag off of what Bitcoin TINA said,
all of the possibilities and the potential that are locked up because of our current financial system. You know, you can just look around the world right now, 80% of people on the planet earn less than $10 a day. 2 billion people on the planet earned less than a dollar a day. Alright? It's very clear that there's massive capital misallocation happening globally when two people have basically the same ability to create value, but because of inefficiencies in how the capital flows, there's poor education or there's poor job opportunities, or there's poor financial access or, or whatever the, the, secondary or third order effect is of our broken financial system.
So I think unlocking all of that potential massively changes the potential for mankind. And then I think if you're taking macro economic or a historical perspective on finance, you know, asking someone in the year, 1500 or 1600 AD, you know, what do you project the GDP of the world being in, the year 2020 would be an absurd question [00:06:00] because they couldn't even imagine a skyscraper, much less multiple skyscrapers on a city block.
With, with many thousands of cities. So I think that the amount of potential that can be unlocked is just, very, very difficult to comprehend. And I think the last point I'll leave as the biggest change that we're going to see is as we see the death of the Fiat banking system and governments lose the power to print money,
there's so much misallocation of capital that governments do, whether it's by setting regulatory instruments that force people into banking, or force people in the legal system or force people into prisons or force people into the military or force people into the military industrial complex. Some of our best and brightest minds in the world are being the least valuably allocated for human society.
So I think it's going to be exciting to see governments lose the ability to finance that activity and see those people put to their maximum productivity.
Brandon Green: Beautifully said. Absolutely. Gigi, so you got two mega bulls already...
[00:07:00] Gigi: Yeah,
what can you add to that? Amen to everything that was said, and I very much agree with the metaphor of the internet. I think what the internet did to information Bitcoin will do to value. And, as we see the internet, everything that, that consists of information will be sucked up by the internet.
And I think Bitcoin is doing the same thing, and we're experiencing that right now. So as it monetizes, it will suck out the value of all the other things. And, I think, as, as David said, the obvious step is that all people accept Bitcoin and Bitcoin becomes the default money of the world. But I think the interesting effect will also be that it will demonetize
many different other assets like, the real estate markets and stocks , what have you. Like, there are many things that are well over inflated and it will be interesting to see, nation state level FOMO into Bitcoin. I think the last bull run we had was just individuals forming into Bitcoin and we didn't even see [00:08:00] like super rich individuals forming in yet I think.
And, in the next couple of cycles, I really like the, cross asset model way of thinking about things like the multiple phases of Bitcoin. And in the next couple of years we will see the next couple of phases of Bitcoin. And at one point in time we will have nation States FOMOing into Bitcoin, it will be that important, in my opinion.
And in terms of price, who knows what's going to happen and who knows what kind of makes sense to talk about, like if, if the dollar continues to deflate and, talking about price, in dollar terms doesn't even make sense. But, I think ultimately we're already living through hyperbitcoinization, as I said in the beginning, and what the end result is of hyperbitcoinization. Who knows. I agree with David that there is a lot of untapped potential and a lot of misallocation of capital, and I think Bitcoin will unlock a lot of that.
Brandon Green: Absolutely. so I've been part of the team kind of putting this all together in the background and, while we were sitting around kind of discussing, these next
few months and years, one [00:09:00] thing that was really striking me last night, I don't know why it was so specific, but I was thinking about how, you know, we really have built a better tool to store value. and like we've gone from shells to gold to fiat, now to Bitcoin. And it's like, think of how much more potential there is just in the actual tool of Bitcoin itself and what it can do versus what a shell can do, vs what gold can do. and it's just like, it becomes a no brainer that it becomes this really valuable thing that we have. so, you know, it's just another thought that I had kind of, just last night,
David Bailey: you know, on the, on the gold front, I was sitting down with someone recently to do a calculation of how much gold has appreciated since we left the gold window. and so before FDR took up all the gold, I think it was $20 per ounce of gold. Well, all right, well, you can do the simple math and you're like, okay, well, announce a goal now is $1,700, yada, yada. But what people forget is that actually the total supply of gold increases at 3% per year.
And [00:10:00] so, that pays on a compounding basis, you're basically looking at the total supply of gold doubling, let's say roughly every 20 or so years. Okay, well, if you think about when the gold window was closed to today, that's at least four, maybe five doublings that you have there. So really the price of gold per ounce on an equivalent weighted basis would be, You know, 1700 times two then times two again, then times two again, then times two again, then times two again. So, you know it's insane really, when you think about asset classes and you try to make a true fixed supply comparison, we just don't really have a corollary to look at even the things that we do have as corollaries radically balloon and
TINA: I want to chime in with something that David said a few minutes ago in his introduction that I think is important. We're talking about our vision of the final moon. So for me, the most valuable capital that we have in the world is human capital. It's with our talents, our abilities, that we are [00:11:00] able to create wealth, make a better world, and move humanity forward.
So I tweeted something the other day and I'd like to add to that, cause I've commented on this before. The tweet the other day was "imagine a world where rocket scientists were actually building rockets instead of financial engineering" and that has to do with wall street. Now I've said this before, imagine a world where you can
in anywhere in the world, very poor areas, Take four technologies, a solar panel for electricity, mobile data, a computer and Bitcoin, and now this person can work anywhere in the world. Imagine when you bring 2 billion, 3 billion people into the global production of ideas, goods and services, what that is going to do to lift the wealth and the ability of humanity to harness [00:12:00] existing resources and to do more with those resources than they were currently able to do. Bitcoin, because of what it is because of its unique qualities
will encourage man to better use the resources that we have because the nature of what Bitcoin is and help to focus all of those talents, much like a laser focuses its beam on cutting very hard materials. And I think this is very special. It's not just about us getting rich, us making money or investors making money by buying Bitcoin.
It's about how much Bitcoin will actually lift humanity and carry us forward in the future, taking the world out of poverty and ultimately reaching for the stars.
Gigi: Absolutely. And if I might piggyback on that, like Bitcoin is obviously the separation of money and state. Like that's, that's what we are after as well.
But it's also a massive shift in the power balance favoring the [00:13:00] individual. And the scenario that TINA just described, I'm not only thinking of the opportunities it enables in terms of what it could work on and what kind of doors it opens, but it's also... bitcoin is something that nothing can take away from you.
Like in that sense, it's, it's basically one of the most powerful defensive technologies that, that you can have. Like it's, it's such a fundamental shift in the way that the world works, we never had something like that before. it empowers the individual in many different ways and I think it will change the world massively once more people realize that,
David Bailey: taking that analogy that Bitcoin TINA just said and applying it historically, if you're a King and you want to increase your wealth, you want to increase the quality of your life, capturing the highest percentage of gold possible that exists at the time doesn't do much to change your quality of life relative to the power of
future human innovation. And so today, a homeless person arguably has a higher quality [00:14:00] of life as a King or a Lord just a couple of hundred years ago. So I think to Bitcoin TINA's point, it's the potential for future human creativity and invention and innovation that just blows out of the water any short-term perspective of, wow, you know, we've made a lot of money and you can go buy Lambos. It's like, oh wow, we've made a lot of money, we can go buy a horse and carriage. Is like, you know, who cares? Who cares?
Brandon Green: We're all going to be on rocket ships anyways, right?
David Bailey: That's right. That's right. and I think also it's so easy to get depressed about the world today.
I mean, there's so much negative shit going on in the world, but when you start thinking about how much potential is just waiting to be unleashed, I mean, it's just, it's pent up demand. It's truly inspiring. your imagination is not creative enough to imagine all the little ways that it will manifest.
I feel like if we can spread that message, that's what gets people excited about hyperbitcoinization. That's what makes [00:15:00] people really buy in that this is a revolution to overthrow the status quo.
Gigi: Yeah, absolutely. And speaking of things that are hard to imagine, I, I love, BitcoinTINA for the way he expresses it all, all of Bitcoin's surprises will be to the upside, you know, and I heartily agree with that.
I think Bitcoin will continue to go exponential and we will continue to have these exponential S-curves. and we will just go through these phases of bitcoin adoption globally. And, I just can see one of those phase transitions, basically developing fiat currencies so much that bitcoin just doesn't come down -- like
that will be pretty much the last one in terms of, hyperbitcoinization, I would say. And I think everyone will be surprised about the numbers, like the numbers won't make sense. And, if you just, do the math on how little Satoshis there are in the world and what the potential economic output of the world in real terms would be
then it shouldn't be a surprise [00:16:00] that there will be surprises to the upside. But I think we're just very linear creatures and can't imagine what Bitcoin is going to do in the next 10, 20, 50 years.
TINA: Satoshi designed money which will pump and takes advantage of human nature for it to become adopted as the one and only money, and money is the ultimate tool for societal organization.
It enables us to reach past the Dunbar number. It enables us to create the most effective, what they call economic calculation. With money, we go to something which is core to humanity and it becomes a critical organizing means for truly launching humanity for the future. And I didn't want to talk just about the idea about how much [00:17:00] Bitcoin can go up.
I think it will go up a lot, and I think that's important because that is how Bitcoin gets adopted. But the real moon is how much Bitcoin will change and move humans forward as a species. And I think that's what Satoshi envisioned when he created Bitcoin and he knew that money is the one thing that can do it because money is absolutely intrinsic to humans' existence.
And that's how I think Bitcoin will moon.
David Bailey: if you look at it from an evolutionary perspective, it's difficult to understand how, a human can be made up of individual component cells that's somehow form into, organs that work in cohesion with each other, that somehow work in cohesion as a body that somehow produces one consciousness.
It's a very strange, I guess, scientific phenomenon. [00:18:00] The closest thing I can almost see as a corollary is how money works in society, how we are individuals that each have our own desires and needs and wants, et cetera, but that money creates some sort of amorphous signaling system that causes us to do things that we're not really totally in control of.
if you look at it in an evolutionary perspective, the role that money is playing, like we could be at a very profound moment right now between the evolution of biology into something even bigger than purely the biological. I mean, truly like where does this digitization and, robotic universe go in the future?
I know that's a very out there idea, but I think it has the same level of mystery baked into it, that if you look back and you're like, how did we have the first organic life come about , it's like at some point in time we had, some elements become complex, compounds that becomes single celled organisms.
Like there's some magical moment where the inorganic becomes the organic. And are we at this moment right now where the [00:19:00] organic is trying to become something more than the organic?
Gigi: it definitely feels like we're at an inflection point and, I very much resonate also with what TINA said, like the real moment has no dollar price.
And to quote Marty Bent, like, "fix the money, fix the world," you know, like a lot of stuff in our current world is broken thanks to our broken money as well. And I think Bitcoin will have a profound effect on the economy and also on the individual actually like, if you can actually allocate your capital more effectively, you will accelerate progress and you will also accelerate your own growth by lowering your time preference.
For example, like, emphasizing more savings, more long-term thinking, more personal responsibility, stuff like that.
Yeah. to loop back what I said before, I really love the quote by Julian Assange as well, that no amount of coercive force will ever solve a math problem. And I think that's very important to understand in the world of Bitcoin, as well and this will change the world profoundly.
David Bailey: So I have [00:20:00] one quick question for the other panelists, how many years do you think we are away from Bitcoin not trading in dollar price terms?
Brandon Green: Real quick, before everyone answers this is the last question, I'm getting the signals from the back office that it's time to move on. So, real quick and everyone can answer this and we'll give it a little rap.
please go ahead.
TINA: I think
Bitcoin can be in the minimum three to $5 million range between 2028 and 2032 I think there's a very good chance around that time, sometime between 2028, 2032 that a large enough internal market will have been created that many things will already be being priced in Bitcoin, and many Bitcoiners will never have to sell Bitcoin into dollars to transact.
At that point, tech should have been advanced enough, so I'm guessing somewhere in that 2030 range, possibly as far out as [00:21:00] 2035. I think Bitcoin ultimately becomes the one and only money in the world no longer than 14 to 29 years from now.
Gigi: , I'm having a hard time coming up with exact dates and numbers, but my gut tells me that we are 50% there.
And I said that a year ago, so, when Bitcoin is like 20, 21 years old -- let's say, when Bitcoin is 21 years old, then I think we're almost done with hyperbitcoinization already in terms of it being a very dominant money in this world.
Brandon Green: Absolutely. And that's a, that's a beautiful place to cut it off.
Guys, real quick, can you tell us where to find you?
Gigi: Yeah, sure. I'm @dergigi, on Twitter and everywhere else, and you can also find my writing on dergigi.com
TINA: I'm @BitcoinTINA on Twitter, and that's pretty much where I am. An occasional podcast.
David Bailey: @Bitcoinmagazine baby!